Integrated Travel Demand Models For Evacuations: A Bridge Between Social Science And Engineering

Since 9/11, the Indian Ocean tsunami and hurricane Katrina, the number of papers that are being
published related to mobility simulation in evacuation conditions has signifi cantly increased. Though
several topics have been developed, they tend to be implemented with an isolated and non-system
approach and for specifi c kinds of dangerous events. This work aims to present a classifi cation and
specifi cation of demand models for mobility simulation in evacuation conditions under different evacuation
scenarios, in respect to different temporal conditions. A general framework is proposed to support
the analysis of dangerous events, in respect of type and effects, especially in time. Three different
temporal evolutions are identifi ed and systematized: event developments and the relative conditioning
on the system; user modifi cation of behavior; and planning and management evolution. Leaving from
the integrated temporal evolutions, the user behavior in the system context is analyzed and specifi c
models are developed. The importance of SP surveys to analyze user behavior in evacuation conditions
is highlighted and a hybrid class of surveys, termed SP with a physical check, is introduced. An integrated
demand model is specifi ed and calibrated for a dangerous event with effects on travel demand,
with diffuse effects in space and delayed in time, according a behavioral approach