Estimating demand variables of maritime container transport: An aggregate procedure for the Mediterranean area

Demand variables of maritime container transport (throughput, transhipment and origin–destination flows) may be estimated with freight demand models. As their parameters generally vary both in time and space, models may not be transferable to geographical areas and time periods differing from that for which they are calibrated. The model parameters may be re-calibrated by means of an aggregate procedure presented herein. It allows spatial and temporal fitting operations to be performed from multiple heterogeneous data sources. The procedure is applied in order to obtain an aggregate estimation of the above variables at years 2006 and 2015 for countries facing the Mediterranean basin. This geographical area was defined to support a specific analysis of the transhipment hub ports of Gioia Tauro, Taranto and Cagliari. The procedure represents a useful tool for market analysts, who need aggregate estimates of demand variables, and for freight model developers, who need data to validate models.