Fallow Fields, Falling Incomes: The CAP 2023–2027 Framework in the Italian Cereal Sector

Analysis of recent Eurostat data shows a progressive decline in EU cereal production. While cultivated acreage has contracted steadily since 2013, the most severe output reduction occurred during 2022–2024, driving a surge in import volumes. This is mirrored in Italy, exposing systemic vulnerabilities within high-value agri-food supply chains amidst geopolitical volatility. Farm profitability has been eroded by a price-cost squeeze: input costs – notably fertilisers and energy – surged, while output prices frequently fluctuated below break-even thresholds. Concurrently, CAP 2023–2027 Eco-schemes have intensified regulatory complexity. Within this framework, Italy's National Strategic Plan implemented standards regarding crop rotation. However, its extensive adoption diluted per-hectare premiums, undermining the CAP's fixed-budget framework. This domestic instability is compounded by exogenous shocks, such as the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine conflict, which exposed the EU's strategic dependencies and necessitated temporary environmental derogations to mitigate supply security risks. For the post-2027 CAP, resolving regulatory instability is a strategic imperative. A recalibrated synergy between environmental stewardship and the revitalisation of production is essential to safeguard the resilience and global competitiveness of the EU agri-food system.