Calibration and validation of a dynamic assignment model in emergency conditions from real-world experimentation

Calibration and validation of dynamic assignment models to simulate urban road transport systems in ordinary conditions are still an open issue. This problem is further emphasized in the case of transport systems analysis in emergency conditions, as there are no standardised methods and there is a lack of experience of real-world applications. The paper presents a DA model and a procedure able to simulate transport supply and transport supply – travel demand interaction of an urban road transport system in emergency conditions. The transport supply models are calibrated and validated through traffic data observed during a real-world evacuation experiment conducted in the town of Melito di Porto Salvo (Italy). The DA model has been applied in order to reproduce the observed real-world evacuation experiment and a set of indicators for testing the performance of a road network in emergency conditions is estimated. We think that the findings reported in the paper represent a contribution in the field of transportation systems analysis in emergency conditions at urban scale. The specified and calibrated DA model and the applied set of indicators can be a useful tool to support the planning and management of road networks and mobility in emergency conditions